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  康德拉季耶夫的长波理论最早见于1919—1920年完成(1922年出版)的《战时及战后时期世界经济及其波动》一书,此后,关于长波理论他又先后发表 了《经济生活中的长波》(1925年)和《大经济周期》(1928年)等论著。

  他在1925年的《经济生活中的长期波动》一文中运用英国、法国、美国和德国等主要资本主义国家的价格、利率、进口额、出口额、煤炭和生铁产量等时间序列统计资料对经济发展的长波进行了实证研究。通过研究康德拉季耶夫认为资本主义经济发展过程中存在着长度为48年到60年、平均为50年的长期波动。他将其所研究的1780~1920年这140年中资本主义经济运动划分为两个半长周期波动。

  在这些论著中,他分析了英、法、美、德以及世界经济的大量统计数据,发现发达商品经济中存在着为期54年的周期性波动。按他的研究,

  世界经济中的第一次长波从18世纪80年代末90年代初开始,至1810—1817年为上升期,1810—1817年至1844—1851年为衰落期;

  第二次长波开始于1844—1851年,从那时起到1870—1875年为上升期,1870— 1875年至1890—1896年为衰落期;

  第三次长波开始于1890—1896年,至1915—1920年为上升期,而衰落期则开始于1914— 1920年间,到他著书之时第三次长波的衰落期仍在继续。

  在50年左右的周期中,一般说头15年是衰退期;接着20年是大量再投资期,在此期间新技术不断 采用,经济发展快,显示出一派兴旺景象;其后10年是过度建设期,过度建设的结果是5~10年的混乱期,从而导致下一次大衰退的出现。

       Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are described as sinusoidal-like cycles in the modern capitalist world economy. Averaging fifty and ranging from approximately forty to sixty years in length, the cycles consist of alternating periods between high sectoral growth and periods of relatively slow growth. Unlike the short-term business cycle, the long wave of this theory is not accepted by current orthodox economics.

The Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev (also written Kondratieff) was the first to bring these observations to international attention in his book The Major Economic Cycles (1925) alongside other works written in the same decade. Two Dutch economists, Jacob van Gelderen and Samuel de Wolff, had previously argued for the existence of 50 to 60 year cycles in 1913. However, the work of de Wolff and van Gelderen has only recently been translated from Dutch to reach a wider audience.

Kondratiev was a Russian economist, but his economic conclusions were disliked by the Soviet leadership and upon their release he was quickly dismissed from his post as director of the Institute for the Study of Business Activity in the Soviet Union in 1928. His conclusions were seen as a criticism of Stalin's intentions for the Soviet economy: as a result he was sentenced to the Soviet Gulag and later received the death penalty in 1938.

Later, in Business Cycles (1939), Joseph Schumpeter suggested naming the cycles "Kondratieff waves", in honor of the economist who first noticed them. In the 1950s, French economist François Simiand proposed naming the ascendant period of the cycle "Phase A" and the downward period "Phase B". Some market commentators divide the Kondratiev wave into four 'seasons', namely, the Kondratiev Spring (improvement or plateau) and Summer (acceleration or prosperity) of the ascendant period and the Kondratiev Fall (recession or plateau) and Winter (acceleration or depression) of the downward period.

  康德拉季耶夫系统明确地提出长波理论之后,许多经济学家即对长波产生的动因进行了定性分析并对长波的存在进行了实证检验和统计证明。

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